Is Ukraine’s counteroffensive progressing?

Passers-by stand near a destroyed building following an overnight missile strike in Kharkiv, on August 29, 2022, amid Russia's military invasion launched on Ukraine. (Photo by SERGEY BOBOK / AFP)
Passersby stand near a destroyed building following an overnight missile strike in Kharkiv, on August 29, 2022, amid Russia’s military invasion launched on Ukraine [Sergey Bobok/AFP]

By John Psaropoulos

Ukraine’s armed forces claim to have launched a long-awaited ground operation to take back territories in the Kherson region in the 27th week of the war, striking in eight directions simultaneously.

“We have launched offensive operations in many directions … we can confirm that we have broken through the first line of defence,” said a spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern command, Natalia Gumenyuk, on August 29.

The offensive comes after weeks of pummelling Russian supply lines, command posts, equipment and ammunition warehouses and airbases with high-precision rocket artillery and drones to weaken resupply capabilities to the front lines. Russian forces had responded by creating pontoon crossings on the Dnieper River.

Serhiy Khlan, a former adviser to Kherson’s governor, said Ukrainian forces had destroyed a Russian pontoon ferry crossing near the village of Lvove. Ukrainian and Russian sources also showed Ukraine had struck a Russian pontoon crossing made of barges next to the crippled Antonivsky bridge.

“The effects of destroying ferries will likely be more ephemeral than those of putting bridges out of commission, so attacking them makes sense in conjunction with active ground operations,” said the Institute for the Study of War.

Russian military blogger Grey Zone, who has 276,000 Telegram subscribers, reported that Ukrainian forces had advanced 6km (3.7 miles) to take Sukhyi Stavok, north of Kherson city.

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An unnamed military source told CNN that Ukrainian forces had taken settlements including Pravdyne, Nova Dmytrivka and Tomyna Balka, about 23km (14.3 miles) southwest of Kherson city, suggesting they were advancing along a salient south of Kherson city.

Ukrainian officials from the Kherson region were urging residents to temporarily evacuate Kherson city “so that our armed forces can quickly liberate it from the enemy”.

A local resident told Al Jazeera that the counteroffensive had some initial success, but was becoming bogged down.

“The villages along the front line – these the Ukrainians broke easily. In the second line of defence there was blood spilled. I heard 1,000 Ukrainians and 1,500 Russians [were killed],” said Pantelis Boubouras, Greece’s honourary consul in Kherson, who runs a construction business in Odesa.

“The second line isn’t falling easily. There are 25,000-30,000 soldiers, they’ve been there five months, and are very well equipped and dug in,” Boubouras told Al Jazeera.

The Russian Defence Ministry denied that there was any loss of territory, saying 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers had died during the attempt to recapture Kryvyi Rih in the Kherson region.

“Effective actions by the Russian group of troops destroyed 48 tanks, 46 infantry fighting vehicles, 37 other armoured fighting vehicles, eight pickup trucks with heavy machine guns and more than 1,200 Ukrainian servicemen in a day,” Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov said.

But Gumenyuk said Russian forces had not launched a defensive counterattack.

“Having dug in and feeling more or less protected among the reinforced concrete structures, [the enemy] does not want to climb into attack” she said.

It was unclear how well the offensive was progressing on the northern edge of the line of contact in Kherson. Grey Zone said that Ukrainian forces had crossed the Inhulets River on boats and launched unsuccessful offensives on a cluster of settlements near Vysokopillya.

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At the same time, geolocated footage showed that Ukrainian forces had recaptured Arkhanhelske, a settlement near Vysokopillya along the line of contact.

Deeper in Kherson oblast, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian concentration of ammunition and equipment in a factory at Beryslav, setting it aflame, a local official told the news site Ukrainian Pravda.

‘Time for the Russian military to flee’

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry made no mention of an offensive in Kherson in its regular operational update on the evening of August 29 or the morning of August 30.

However, without offering specifics, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on August 29 that “the occupiers should know, we will oust them to the border … which has not changed” – a reference to Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory that included Crimea and the Donbas. “If they want to survive, it is time for the Russian military to flee.”

The “Kakhovka” grouping of Ukrainian troops said on the morning of August 29 that the situation was ripe for an offensive, since Ukrainian rocket artillery had destroyed all heavy bridges across the Dnieper River.

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“Only the pedestrian crossings are left,” they said. “The Russian army turned out to be cut off from the supply of arms and personnel from the territory of Crimea. This is a brilliant chance for Ukraine to regain its territories.”

Ukraine has been receiving massive military aid from NATO members since Russia invaded it on February 24. On the six-month anniversary of the invasion, August 24, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg underlined the alliance’s commitment.

“You can count on NATO’s support for as long as it takes … Ukraine must prevail. Ukraine will prevail,” said Stoltenberg.

On the same day, the administration of United States President Joe Biden gave Ukraine its biggest single payout of military aid worth $2.98bn. Biden said the package “will allow Ukraine to acquire air defence systems, artillery systems and munitions, counter-unmanned aerial systems, and radars”.

Throughout the 27th week, Ukrainian forces stepped up their attacks on Russian supply lines.

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Ukraine’s southern command said on August 25 that its forces had struck the Nova Kakhovka bridge in Kherson, destroying 12 Russian tanks and ammunition.

Ukrainian air strikes destroyed air defence units and an ammunition depot along with seven rocket launchers in Russian-occupied Nova Kakhovka, an area Ukrainian troops are now trying to capture in the Kherson oblast. Ukrainian officials reported that a total of four Russian warehouses were destroyed.

These Ukrainian strikes have had an effect on Russian strategy and strength. Business Insider quoted a secret NATO report saying Russian forces relocated six Sukhoi-35S and four MiG-31BM aircraft from Belbek airfield in Crimea to mainland Russia, ostensibly to protect them from Ukrainian counterattacks.

Russia has also had problems staffing its invasion of Ukraine, having suffered losses of more than 47,000 personnel, according to the Ukrainian Defence Ministry.

Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Vadym Skibitsky said Russia is preparing to mobilise 90,000 troops in the country.

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These are volunteers, reservists, and soldiers recruited as part of Russia’s summer drive to raise a battalion in each of its regions.

“Will the mobilisation of more people in the Russian Federation help?” asked Skibitsky. “Probably not after all. Because the morale of military personnel, as they conduct combat operations, decreases.”

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

Afghanistan’s Taliban mark anniversary of US-led force withdrawal

Taliban fighters parade on humvee vehicles
Taliban fighters parade on Humvee vehicles as they celebrate the first anniversary of the withdrawal of US-led troops from Afghanistan, near the former US embassy in Kabul on August 31, 2022 [Wakil Kohsar/AFP]

The Taliban have celebrated the first anniversary of the withdrawal of US-led forces from Afghanistan with a military parade showcasing equipment left behind by foreign troops and calls for their government to be accepted as legitimate internationally.

Fireworks lit up the sky over Kabul on Tuesday night on the anniversary of the withdrawal and Wednesday was also a public holiday, with small celebrations across Kabul including parades by Taliban forces.

The US withdrawal, completed a minute before midnight on August 30, 2021, came as the Taliban swept to power after a 20-year war against US-led forces who invaded Afghanistan following the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.

“The experience of the past 20 years can be a good guide … Any kind of pressure and threats on Afghanistan’s people in the last 20 years has failed and just increased the crisis,” the Taliban said in a statement on Wednesday.

Taliban members walk past a mural depicting a US flag on the first anniversary of the withdrawal of US-led troops from Afghanistan, in Kabul on August 31, 2022. - The Taliban declared on August 31 a national holiday and lit up the capital with coloured lights to celebrate the first anniversary of the withdrawal of US-led troops from Afghanistan after a brutal 20-year war. (Photo by Wakil KOHSAR / AFP)
Taliban members walk past a mural depicting a US flag on the first anniversary of the withdrawal of US-led troops from Afghanistan, in Kabul on August 31, 2022 [Wakil Kohsar/AFP]

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan – the name the Taliban give their government – is the “legitimate government of the country and the representative of the brave Afghan nation”, the statement said.

The Taliban statement called on the international community to allow Afghans to have an independent Islamic government that has a “positive interaction with the world”.

Human rights

No country has recognised the Taliban, who took over Afghanistan with a speed and ease that took the world by surprise.

The international community has pressed the Taliban on human rights, particularly those of girls and women whose access to school and work has been limited. It has also urged the Taliban to stop harassing critics, activists, and journalists.

The Taliban say they are discussing the matter of girls’ education and deny cracking down on dissent.

The celebration also included a military parade at Bagram Airbase, the nerve centre of US forces during the war.

Groups of Taliban fighters marched as helicopters flew by, video footage aired by state television showed. Minutes later, dozens of military vehicles including the iconic US military’s Humvees and tanks, seized in the war or left behind by US forces during their chaotic withdrawal, were paraded.

Prime Minister Mohammad Hassan Akhund said in speech marking the withdrawal that the Taliban had put an end to killings and bombing and had ensured national security, according to the local channel TOLOnews.

He said that sanctions on Afghanistan had increased poverty and that understanding would achieve better results than pressure, according to the news channel.

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Banners celebrating victories against three empires – the former Soviet Union and Britain also lost wars in Afghanistan – flew in Kabul.

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Hundreds of white Taliban flags bearing the Islamic proclamation of faith flew on streets and government buildings, while squares in the capital were decorated with lights.

Despite the Taliban’s pride in taking over, Afghanistan’s 38 million people face a desperate humanitarian crisis – aggravated after billions of dollars in Central Bank assets were frozen and foreign aid dried up.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES

At least 14 dead in rebel attacks in eastern DR Congo

Map of DR Congo showing northeastern region of Ituri

Suspected rebels have killed at least 14 civilians and kidnapped more than a dozen others in an attack in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, a witness and a local human rights group have said.

An army spokesman confirmed the attack on Wednesday, which took place in Ituri province on Tuesday evening, and blamed it on the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan militia active in eastern DRC since the 1990s, which has pledged allegiance to the ISIL (ISIS) group.

The army killed five fighters and rescued a five-year-old girl who had been kidnapped, spokesman Antony Mwalushayi said. He did not give a number for the civilians who died.

Gilbert Sivamwenda, the president of the local human rights group for the chiefdom of Babila Babombi, said there were 16 dead in Biakato including 14 civilians and two ADF fighters.

About 15 farmers were also missing and several other people who cannot be found and are not responding to calls, Sivamwenda said.

“The nature of the attack was terrifying. They looted my shop before taking five members of my family into the bush,” said Biakato resident Augustin Kyala Malembe, who also counted 16 dead and said dozens of people were kidnapped.

“The army intervened but the damage was done.”

The ADF stages frequent deadly raids on villages in eastern Congo despite joint operations by the Congolese and Ugandan armies to stamp it out.

The group killed about 40 civilians in five villages in a string of attacks between Thursday and Monday.

SOURCE: NEWS AGENCIES

ALJAZEERA.COM

Muqtada al-Sadr and Iraq’s propensity for an intra-Shia conflict

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Supporters of Iraqi populist leader Muqtada al-Sadr protest at the Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq [File: Thaier Al-Sudani/Reuters]

By Arwa Ibrahim

At least 30 people were killed as supporters of Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr and his Iran-backed opponents traded gunfire overnight on Monday and Tuesday morning in Baghdad, stoking fears that the violence might escalate into a Shia-Shia civil war.

The worst violence in the Iraqi capital in years followed the influential Shia leader’s announcement that he would “withdraw from politics” after months of political deadlock. Analysts have said al-Sadr’s drastic step appeared to be in response to the resignation of Shia spiritual leader Grand Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri on Sunday. Many of al-Sadr supporters follow al-Haeri.

The surprise resignation of al-Haeri and his appeal to his followers to support Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a blow to al-Sadr, who has opposed Iranian influence in Iraqi politics.

More than 700 people have also been wounded in the deadly fighting between fighters aligned with al-Sadr and the Popular Mobilisation Forces security group aligned to Iran.

The tensions only dissipated after al-Sadr called on Tuesday for his supporters to withdraw from the fortified Green Zone – home to government buildings and foreign embassies – “within an hour”.

“I apologise to the Iraqi people, the only ones affected by the events,” al-Sadr said in a televised speech.

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Within minutes, the armed group backing him, Saray al-Salam, had left the Green Zone, bringing calm to what had turned into a battlefield. Still, the situation has remained tense, and fears of escalations have remained.

“This [the violence] was certainly the possible beginning or spark of a Shia-Shia civil war,” said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst at the Century Foundation.

“The violence may have subsided for now, but retributions are to be expected. This violence is indicative of the bitter divisions and deadlock in Iraqi politics. It may be ratcheted down for now, but without a proper solution it will appear again in the future,” he added.

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Members of the Sadrist faction withdrawing from Baghdad’s Green Zone after their leader demanded fighting end between rival Shia forces [File: Ahmad al-Rubaye/AFP]

‘Click of a finger’

In advance of al-Sadr’s televised speech, attempts to de-escalate were unsuccessful and calls for Ayatollah Sayyid Sistani and the Grand Marji’a, the Shia religious leadership in Najaf, to intervene, appeared to fall on deaf ears.

“We were expecting Grand Ayatollah Sistani to come out with a statement to say that the spilling of Muslim blood is forbidden and that state properties should be protected,” Marsin Alshamary, an Iraqi analyst and research fellow at the Middle East Initiative, said before al-Sadr’s statement.

“When it comes to a Shia-Shia war, if things get particularly bad, there are two forces that will try to work against that – Iran and Grand Ayatollah Sistani,” she explained, adding that Iran wants to preserve the status quo with its political parties in power, while Sistani intervenes during times of political chaos.

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Instead, the fighting – triggered by al-Sadr’s apparent resignation from politics – also subsided with a word from him.

“Sadr has demonstrated that he can mobilise and demobilise with a word,” said Iraqi analyst Fanar Haddad. “He can click his fingers and threaten the entire edifice. Then, he can click his fingers and save the entire edifice.”

Iraq-focused analyst Tamer Badawi agreed, saying that al-Sadr “increased his leverage because authorities and his nemeses needed him to step in again to cease the mobilisation of his followers”.

“Sadr has been keen on positioning himself as the Iraqi politics kingmaker even if his actions ostensibly show otherwise,” he added.

Iraqi Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr speaks during news conference in Najaf.
Iraqi Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr speaks during a news conference in Najaf, Iraq [File: Reuters]

Large-scale violence

Al-Sadr’s resignation appeared to trigger a serious threat to Iraq’s stability, one that has not been witnessed in recent years.

“We had clashes like this before, but on a much smaller scale and not as widespread across the country,” said Jiyad.

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“Both sides tried to gain or hold onto territory in and around the Green Zone and targeted each other’s office,” he added, explaining that al-Sadr’s Saray al-Salam and the rival Iran-backed Hashd al-Shaabi appeared to have an “appetite for violence” which could have developed into an all-out war if the Hashd had deployed its full strength.

A principal fear before al-Sadr’s statement, which quelled the fighting, was that it would spread across Iraq’s mainly Shia south.

“If the conflict between the Sadrists and pro-Iran axis groups went beyond Baghdad and spread to the south, on a scale similar to that of what occurred in the Green Zone … there would have been a genuine risk for protracted conflicts,” said Badawi.

“Southern Iraq is already mired with lawlessness, organised crime, and tribal conflicts that can fuel the conflict between local militant leaders,” he added, explaining that such a development would have increased insecurity, even if not a full-scale civil war.

But for Haddad, even if al-Sadr had not come out to condemn the violence, prospects of a civil war were unlikely.

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“There’s been a clear pullback since Sadr’s statement, but the prospect of a Shia-Shia civil war was still slim despite the danger of an unplanned escalation,” Haddad told Al Jazeera. “None of the main protagonists want to go toward civil war. All stand to lose too much,” he added.

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Supporters of Iraqi populist leader Muqtada al-Sadr clash with supporters of the Coordination Framework, a group of Shia parties, at the Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq [File: Thaier Al-Sudani/Reuters]

Why this time?

Al-Sadr has announced his withdrawal from politics at least seven times since 2013, reflecting continuing intra-Shia tensions that have mired Iraqi politics since President Saddam Hussain’s overthrow in a US-led invasion in 2003.

But analysts have said the reason this withdrawal triggered such tensions relates to a series of events that preceded al-Sadr’s resignation, and which made him feel he was at a dead end.

“Sadr has resigned before, but things escalated because he felt his opponents had used one of the sneakiest tactics – going to a cleric and asking him to denounce Sadr,” Jiyad told Al Jazeera, referring to Haeri’s resignation and his call for support for Iran’s Khamenei, rather than the Shia spiritual centre in Najaf.

Al-Sadr considered the move a blow to his legitimacy and credentials, since Haeri had provided him with the legitimacy he lacked as a religious authority without scholarly credentials to be an ayatollah.

“He wanted to send a message that he was the one who kept his followers in check and if he steps back, they are willing to do whatever,” said Jiyad, referring to al-Sadr’s resignation. “This was him saying I’m out of options and I’m not willing to compromise.”

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Al-Sadr pulled out of general elections in July, before being dragged in again by his opponents. His party won the largest number of seats in the October elections, but the rival Iran-backed Coordination Framework challenged the results and prevented him from forming a government of his choice with Kurdish and Sunni allies.

Unable to form a government of his liking, he offered the Coordination Framework some government seats – an offer they refused. Al-Sadr reacted by pulling his bloc from parliament, as his supporters staged protests and sit-ins in the Green Zone. The escalation prolonged Iraq’s months-long political crisis and leaders’ inability to form a government.

And despite taking some responsibility for the recent flare-up as he condemned the violence by his supporters, al-Sadr continued to refuse compromise in his televised address.

“Sadr signalled that his opponents would have to find a solution,” said Jiyad. “He will not form a government with all the Coordination Framework included and they will not have a functioning government without him.”

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA